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Cause and impact of the rise in the oil tariffs

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For a long period, stretching between 1930 and 1973 oil prices have shown some stability. This has enabled the relative sustainability of the economic situation. However, since 1973, that stability has disappeared, giving way to a much more disturbing trend.

Indeed, in recent years, the average oil price rose sharply from 20 dollars a barrel for the 90 to 50 dollars in 2005. After two oil shocks in 1973 and 1980, a third shock appeared in August 2006. The oil market is in turmoil, and the price of a barrel of oil reached the disproportionate cost of 70.85 dollars.

Thus, since 2001, concern weighs on the players and reached its apotheosis in 2006. If the first two oil shocks were mainly the result of political elements of this peak, in 2006 it was even more serious when other factors were added, that it appears so different in scale, duration and nature.

One question that arises is whether this oil shock is inevitable or if it can be fixed? Faced with this, there are two schools of thought, on the one hand some believe that it will be short-lived and other dissidents say the increase in consumption added to the factor of scarcity makes it worse.

One reason for the rise in oil prices is the depletion of reserves. Like any nature reserve, the oil is not infinite. Indeed, it seems that there is enough oil for another twenty years but a shortage might occur later.

The original of this statement, the statement of the International Energy Agency (after study) is categorical: "One of the major conclusions of this study is that the reserves of oil, gas, coal and uranium are more than sufficient to cover the expected consumption growth to 2020. " But, say the experts of the IEA, ?massive investments in infrastructure for production and transmission will be needed to exploit these reserves. "

In other words, there is enough oil to keep up for 20 years but the producing countries must still the have the means to exploit them. Without new investment, the remaining reserves are not exploited and there will be a shortage of oil ahead of time.

The main oil reserves are currently in the Middle East, Siberia and the shores of the Caspian Sea. Some countries, like France, have applied in 1974 for political economy of oil. However, this initiative has not been held over time and these countries have opted for unrestricted consumption of oil.

In France for example, oil consumption to GDP has increased by about 1% and others, who had a lot of oil reserves are now virtually depleted oil wells. An example is Russia and the United States who are now struggling to replenish their oil reserves.

Moreover, in 2001, OPEC was producing 6 million barrels per day, but this figure was divided by 3 in 2003 with a production of 2 million barrels per day. However, OPEC has revised that figure upward, and in 2005, the organization has produced 4.5 million barrels per day. Concerns still remain as it is not certain that , OPEC can always meet the demand.

Tags: Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); the rise in the oil tariffs; cause and impact

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