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Conflicts between India and Pakistan: Nuclear weapon possession- a major cause of conflict in the region

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  1. Introduction
  2. The nuclearization of the region
    1. The region suffered a nuclear domino theory
    2. The nuclearization of India: Is the China factor alone responsible
  3. Indian bomb, proposed in 1948
  4. A response to the Chinese threat
  5. The Pakistani bomb
  6. The Islamic bomb
  7. Learning deterrence
    1. The proliferation of low intensity conflicts
    2. The paradox of stability-instability
    3. The relevance of the stability-instability paradox
  8. The risk of escalation
    1. Crossing the threshold
    2. Equity in the features of 'deterrent South Asian Theater'
  9. Power politics in India
    1. Diplomatic and strategic
    2. Economic
  10. The internal problems of Pakistan and the U.S
    1. The problem of a weak government
    2. The American factor
  11. Conclusion

The two nuclear powers of the Indian subcontinent, India and Pakistan have a serious dispute which dates back to the time of their independence from the British Empire in 1947. A difference of opinion at the time of independence led to the partition of the subcontinent and the creation of the predominantly Muslim nation, Pakistan, in accordance with the theory advanced by Mohammed Ali Jinnah's "two nation's theory." This led to the loss and displacement of several million lives the original trauma of which can never be forgotten. The two countries still continue to maintain a tense relationship perpetually putting at risk the stability of the region.

[...] Since the war in Afghanistan, the danger of Talibanization of the country raises the fear of the future relations between India and Pakistan. Section The American factor Before the attack Before the September 11th attack, Pakistan was a strategic ally of the U.S. because it was a buffer zone between the USSR, China and the Western world. The trials of 1998, with a clear update of effective nuclearization of the region, invited economic sanctions against the two countries by the U.S., which had also refused to sign the NPT and the CTBT in 1995 in 1996. [...]


[...] In addition to the special situation of Pakistan the two sides are likely to attract a particular risk of rapid transition to nuclear power in the event of a major conventional conflict. The rudimentary means of warning on both sides could lead to misinterpretations. Equity in the features of "deterrent South Asian Theater? We can say that the "deterrent South Asian Theater" presents the following characteristics: Two adjoining countries; An old border dispute, relating to the identity of the two countries; High or low intensity clashes over the past several decades; An appeal to the guerrillas-harassment and terrorism as a means of pressure; A cultural and historical community Nuclear capacity initially based on aviation, but evolving rapidly towards deterrents formed around ground to ground ballistic missiles; Asymmetry of conventional quantitative, partially offset by a reversed asymmetry qualitatively; An uncertain second strike capability, but the means of intelligence on both sides does not ensure the identification of all insured opposing ways; A relatively shallow theater suitable for the surprise attack, and no total strategic depth on one side of the theater; A lack of formal military alliances; The presence in the immediate vicinity of declared nuclear powers; A "learning" phase of deterrence during crises. [...]


[...] In 1971 the third conflict between the two countries erupted when India decided to lend its support to the rebels in East Pakistan, which rejects the authority of Islamabad and the birth of Bangladesh, in spite of advice to the contrary by the international community. After the humiliation it suffered in a stinging defeat against China on the border issue between China and India, India took a very dim view of China's nuclearization, especially because it was close to Pakistan, and the reinforcing theory of encirclement scared India. [...]

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