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Will Brexit change the UK trade structure?

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  1. Current UK trade structure
    1. Partners
    2. Products and services
    3. Regional breakdown
  2. Possible outcome of Brexit trade negotiations
    1. The importance of a trade agreement
    2. The difference between hard and soft Brexit
    3. Trade agreement between the UK and the EU under the soft Brexit assumption
    4. Trade agreement between the UK and the EU under hard Brexit assumption
  3. Gravity theory of international trade
  4. Prospect of new trade partnerships with non-EU countries
  5. Effect of new trade barriers on products and services under different Brexit scenarios
    1. Effects on trade of brexit in WTO and customs union scenario
    2. Effects on goods and services
    3. Impact by region and firm size

This article will try to discern how Brexit will affect the UK's trade structure. The article will start with a description of the current UK trade partners. This section will describe the main UK's trade partners and kinds of goods and services exported and imported by the UK. As part of this work, it also seemed important to us to describe the possible outcomes of Brexit trade negotiations. After this we proceed to project possible effects on the UK's trade structure.
We find that the trade structure will inevitably change. Trade with the EU will decrease, and the resulting trade loss will only partially be compensated by increased trade with other countries outside of the EU. We also find that some very important sectors for the UK's economy, like the financial sector or the chemical industry, will be particularly affected.

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