- Domestic environment
- Household expectations
- Consumer opinion
- Business expectations
- Other factors
- Alternative forecasts
The INSEE has just released one of the most concerning figures about the current French economic environment: the opinion of households has never been so low since 1987.
In fact, tightening credit conditions, higher oil and primary goods prices, and the American financial crisis are undermining the mood of consumers.
Despite this concerning uncertainty, French growth is still a reality, due to the exportations that still exist and the increasing capacity utilization of firms.
But the French economy also depends on external factors such as the consequences of the subprime crisis and the worrying health of the US demand.
Those two aspects of the French economy make economic forecasts vary from one institution to another and from banks to public organizations. We can explain the way those figures have been computed and the benefit of the various calculation methods. We should also link those methods to the main economic theories and try to analyze the significance of the figures through those theories before drawing any conclusion about the future condition of the French economy.