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Geopolitical implications of the Afghan conflict

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  1. Context of the conflict in Afghanistan
    1. Geographical area of the current conflict in Afghanistan
    2. The outcomes of the war
  2. International actors
    1. Afghanistan part in international history
    2. What does this country have to offer that is worth fighting for?
  3. Regional actors
    1. Three neighbours
    2. Iran
    3. Pakistan
    4. India
  4. Afghanistan, drugs and the war
    1. The evolution of the drug by the Afghan conflict
    2. How fight against it?
    3. On the positive side?

Afghanistan was created in the late nineteenth century. At that time this area was the scene of a struggle between the Russian Empire and the British Empire. This is called the "Great Game".

Today's Afghanistan was created to act as a buffer state bringing together multiple ethnicities including Pashtuns and Baluchis. Those were later divided by the Durand Line (Lord Mortimer Durand, the Viceroy of India) in 1893 that traces the border between Afghanistan and the Empire of British India (now Pakistan). This ethnic partition will remain a source of conflict for the nowadays 30 millions Afghan population.

[...] Today two projects liven up the ambitions for Turkmenistan's gas : two pipelies which will have the capacity to transport 60 billion m3 of gaz per year: Tran-Caspiennes, estimated to five billion dollars, goes in the direction of the South of Europe, and TAPI (Turkménistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-Inde), estimated at ten billion dollars, supposed to connect Central Asia in very attractive Indian subcontinent. TAPI project is essential for the country, and may boost its exports and accelerate the unhealthy economy. But in order for that to happen the involved parties must be sure of the stability of nearby Afghanistan. The countries are also bound by exchanges of energy (electric million Kilowatts) and economic goods Turkmenistan and Iran being close to each other also enjoy good relationship and cooperates in many domain as Energy, Economy and Construction. [...]

[...] The great powers want to implement the gas and oil pipelines. China, India, whose energy needs are increasing are key players in the 14 exploitation of these resources. The economic potential of this growth are capital assets for Economic Development in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan also needs energy for its own economic development. The pipeline Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India [TAPI] is a source of future energy that enable Pakistan to secure its future. Scheduled for completion in 2019, this pipeline represents a number of challenges given the situation in the region. [...]

[...] Today Afghanistan is composed by several ethnic groups. The 30 million inhabitants identify themselves as followed: Afghan Population Ethnic Groupes Pashtuns Tajiks 42% Hazars Ouzbeks Others (such as Pashais, Balouthesn Turkmens etc) 27% The majority of Afghans are Sunni Muslims and except the Hazaras are Shiite and speak a Persian language During the war against the Soviets, the Pashtuns had their fighters: the Taliban. The Taliban are departing student (Taleb: student) in Theology and followers of radical Islam. The Talibans belive in the Prophet Hadith who preaces that the kingdom of God would come after the Islamization of India through Afghanistan. [...]

[...] Iran Iran has a special position in the Afghan conflict. The Iranian Regime is opposing the Taliban. But at the same time this same regime has always been strictly against to the anti-terror war led by the Americans. The reason being that Iran has always suspected the Americans of wanting to expand their influence in the region to get hold of strategic resources, rather than fighting terrorism. In this context Iran advocates a diplomatic solution more than a military one. [...]

[...] The United States organized the direct and indirect control through active intervention. However, this war seems to be doomed to failure because the power of the US military makes any attempt of direct confrontation impossible and asymmetric modes of intervention are the only strategy available for states and organizations that want to take on the United States. This "war" on terrorism will only increase the desire for revenge of some victims groups and expand this means of action to actors hitherto preserved. [...]

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