Does the Iranian nuclear power represent a threat?
During the 2005 presidential elections, the shock was particularly severe. Diplomats in Tehran in place all predicted the victory of Rafsanjani and we already saw an agreement that is deemed acceptable by all on the nuclear issue. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, an ultra conservative, former member of the secret services, member of the IRGC has sought to place Iran on the international scene in the provocation and confrontation. Thus, the Iranian nuclear case perfectly demonstrates the inability of Western democracies in respond to a regime that has opted for confrontation.
The evolution of Iran is presented as very dangerous. We have entered a period of deliberate confrontation, the situation opposite to that envisioned by the Europeans, Americans and much of the Iranians themselves. State of play: the resumption of Iran's nuclear activities. By June 2004, the IAEA complained of a lack of cooperation from Iran. On August 8, 2005, Iran officially declared the resumption of its uranium conversion activities at the Isfahan plant, after removing the seals in place by the IAEA experts.
What is the Iranian nuclear program?
While Iran says its program is purely civilian purpose, since it would only produce electricity, the international community is concerned about the operation of several Iranian nuclear sites and the continuing work of 'nuclear equipment in the country. Two of these sites, Natanz and Arak, were built in secret, which is surprising for civilian purposes. In addition, Iran's nuclear program, particularly the size of the Natanz site, surprised observers, since its importance goes beyond mere energy needs. These lines suggest that country might seek to acquire nuclear weapons.
What is the probability of access to Iran's nuclear weapons and what are the policy changes of such an accession of Iran to nuclear weapons capability? In the event of a nuclear program for military purposes, and putting aside any penalties or even intentions on the part of the international community in the coming months, experts consider the possibility for Iran to achieve its goals quickly.
The opinions remain divided. The United States has regularly shaken the imminence of the acquisition by Iran. According to Bruno Tertra is, a researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, three hypotheses are considered:
- If the Iranians keep pace followed for twenty years, it would take five to 10 years;
- If this pace is accelerating due to new uranium enrichment facility would require two years;
- If there are hidden facilities with more efficient centrifuges, then the period could be even faster.
It is incorrect to take it irreversible as a fatality of history, Iran's accession to the rank of military nuclear power. A general process is under development. Everything now depends on the solution or no solution that all countries concerned and the international community may wish to choose.
Tags: 2005 presidential elections, Rafsanjani, Western democracies, Iran's nuclear activities, nuclear equipment, international community, Iranian nuclear sites, Foundation for Strategic Research