1855.com, wine, cash forecast, wine market, financial forecast, financial analysis, business model, wine distributor, fine wine, wine supplier
1855.com was created in 1999 as an online wine distributor. Its unique business model has drawn a lot of investors; however, as time went on, the public discovered that 1855 was not financially healthy, and was thought to be a Ponzi Scheme. Let's bring ourselves back to 2003, and try to do a financial forecast analysis, to find out where the problem is.
[...] Growth in Wine Market driven by Chinese customers Wine market overview: Sales of Bordeaux wines grow by in 2008 Reduced consumption in France, but offset by strong growth in demand especially from China Strong growth of online wine sales Bordeaux Primeur: Highly differentiated, luxury product Globally recognized producer labels, but no global distributor Seasonal and cyclical (good and bad years) Small, fragmented producers, no capacity to sell to global customer Production of finished wine takes up to 3 years after harvest 1855: Establishment of classification system for France's best wines Financial Analysis - Wine.com Case Strengths Very few inventory Receive cash in advance, pay later Weaknesses Price risk, the supply price depends on the climate Opportunities Threats The market is growing stably Low entry barrier, easy to be copied I. Business idea & model - Company description and environment 1855.com tried to reinvent the online wine distribution business Financial Analysis - Wine.com Case II. [...]
[...] Forecast 3 years Balance Sheet Balance sheet of three years Balance sheet Fixed assets Property (building etc.) Website & wine catelogue Shipping fleet Inventories Trade Receivables Cash Financial Analysis - Wine.com Case Current assets & Cash Shareholders' equity Capital increse Retained earnings Net Result of the Year 349) 349) Liabilities Bank loan Trade payables Due to Shipping V. Analysis of the financial structure How does 1855 finance its business ? In 2004 Clients place order online and pay a fixed sum for the wine, but the wine they ordered are not even produced yet When 1855 take the money to buy wine, producers can give a higher price because the wine of that year is better. [...]
[...] Forecast 3 years Cash Flow – 2006 The Cash forecast of 2006, two semesters of the year (in K€ ) Cash forecast Jan - Jun Jul - Dec Cash inflows Total Sales 000 Bank loan - Cash outflows Wine Purchases 200 Personnel costs -10000 Investment Repayment 41 Financial Analysis - Wine.com Case Shipping Interest costs Capital hs Ca w lo f In sh Ca O w flo t u C n ei g n ha sh Ca R 2004 d ne i a et sh Ca III. [...]
[...] Financial Analysis - 1855.com 1855.com Financial Analysis Group X : xxx,xxx,xxxxx Financial Analysis - Wine.com Case I. Business idea & model - Company description and environment 1855.com aims to be the first retailer of premium wine targeting upmarket clients worldwide Background: 1855.com was created in 1999 as an online wine distributor, its unique business model has drawn a lot of investors, however, with the time went on, the public discovered that 1855 was not financially healthy, and was thought to be a Ponzi Scheme. [...]
[...] Business Model: More than 10000 choices in online catalogue Clients pay the wine when it is not bottled yet years in advance) 1855 places the command to wine producers When the wine is produced ships bottles to clients but pay wine producers 6 months later Target and positioning: premium market, upper class clientele, best wine suppliers from Bordeaux. The average selling price per bottle is 200€. WC: working capital Financial Analysis - Wine.com Case I. [...]
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