Electoral behaviour, presidential election, electoral system, Egypt, rational voter, Egyptian election
If we want to understand electoral behaviour during an election, we have to take into account cultural, political and sociological determinants. For the purposes of this study, we wanted to focus on the first free presidential elections since the Egyptian revolution the previous year, which took place on 23 and 24 May 2012. For the first time in Egypt's history, the people were able to choose from a wide range of candidates. To stand, each candidate had to either have the support of 30 members of parliament or collect 30,000 signatures from the public in at least 15 different governorates (Fahmy, Faruqi, 2017). In addition, each party represented in parliament could nominate one candidate. We felt that this election should be questioned insofar as it brought an Islamist candidate to power at the expense of a moderate candidate who belonged to the class and the political system that was toppled and called into question by the Egyptian revolution of 2011, which led to the fall of President Hosni Mubarak on 11 February, who had been in uninterrupted and undivided power since 1981 (Fahmy, Faruqi, 2017).
[...] Understanding Egyptian electoral behaviour according to Downs' theory of the rational voter Anthony Downs assumes that the behaviour of voters and democratic parties is characterised solely by their rational actions. He asserts that actors try to achieve their known objectives with the least possible effort in order to maximise their respective individual advantages (Downs, 1957), which is his definition of rational action. Actors are accused of acting strictly rationally. Parties have the fixed objective of obtaining a certain proportion of the electorate's votes in order to maintain or obtain political power. [...]
[...] In association and trade union elections, candidates close to the ruling party are often elected because of concerns about losing government support (Osman, 2013). Often a candidate has a large following, but cannot say why they choose it or get paid for it. Another weakness of government programmes is that they often deal only with the most basic policy areas, while detailed issues such as the treatment of disabled people or the problem of endemic poverty are not addressed in substance (Osman, 2013). This may explain the structural trend in Egypt, where voter turnout is generally well below 50%. [...]
[...] & Bayoumi, H. (2015). Sociologie électorale de la séquence 2011-2013. Dans : Bernard Rougier éd., L'Égypte en révolutions (pp. 165-190). Paris : Presses Universitaires de France. Shenker, J. (2013), The Egyptians: A Radical History of Egypt's Unfinished Revolution, New-York, The New Press. Sitography https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/countries/e/egypt/egypt-presidential-election-2012.html, consulted november, 16th 2023. [...]
[...] In the case of Egypt, there are several rationales to explain the choice of a moderate or Islamist candidate. We have summarised them as follows: Morsi voters vote for him because they are practising Muslims and want Sharia law (Islamic law) to be applied in society. Morsi's voters vote for him because an Islamist party cannot, by definition, be against the State religion and 3/4 of its population. Morsi's voters vote for him because he plans to reduce poverty through social policies that benefit the weaker social classes Shafik's voters vote for him because they do not want a populist and extremist in power. [...]
[...] An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy. Journal of Political Economy, 65(2), 135-150. Fahmy, D.F, Faruqi, Daanish. (2017), Egypt and the Contradictions of Liberalism: Illiberal Intelligentsia and the Future of Egyptian Democracy (Studies on Islam, Human Rights, and Democracy), London, Oneworld Academic Kandil, H. (2012), Soldiers, Spies, and Statesmen: Egypt's Road to Revolt, London, Verso; 1st edition. Osman T. (2013), Egypt on the Brink: From Nasser to the Muslim Brotherhood, Revised and Updated , Yale, Yale University Press. Rougier, B. [...]
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